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Cake day: June 8th, 2023

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  • Except those fundamental limits are far higher. The fact is that hydrogen stores energy at 120 MJ/kg. Even at 5% weight efficiency, that’s 6 MJ/kg. Or 1,666 Wh/kg. At 10%, it is 3,333 Wh/kg. Far beyond any battery.

    Your link is seriously lying. 8x is the gap between lead-acid and li-ion batteries. The claims are simply impossible. The author must be unknowingly comparing lead-acid battery powered cars to li-ion battery powered cars. I cannot see any other way his claim is true.

    A lithium-air battery is literally a fuel cell. In fact, what did you think hydrogen fuel cells were this entire time?


  • I would say that’s pretty unlikely there will be a 10x improvement in battery chemistry. At some point, we will have to deal with the fundamental limitations of the technology. That will likely imply a different kind of EV. Other conversations in this thread have brought up the FCEV, which is honestly the mostly likely guess for what comes after the BEV. In other words, the solution is to move beyond batteries, not pretend we can just improve batteries ad absurdum.

    Also, this is basically the point of the book The Innovator’s Dilemma. Technology does not improve linearly exclusively. At some point, major shifts in the market will have to happen. If you think about this problem honestly, you probably have to conclude that the limitations of the BEV must be solved by a big leap forward, not incremental improvements in batteries. And if you can reach that conclusion, then you must realize that the BEV has to be a transitional technology. Perhaps, even a fad.






  • Let me throw out a guess, you think it’ll be the hydrogen FCEV’s that will take over? Those can be pretty expensive right now though. Do you think the technology will improve and get cheaper over time by any chance?

    Sure. In fact, FCEVs can be as cheap as ICE cars. They completely avoid the problem of needing giant batteries. As a result, their cost floor is the same as conventional cars today.

    Can you really argue that BEVs will survive if you knew that? The better question is why would we even need BEVs if hydrogen cars prove to be far cheaper?


  • That’s ridiculous. You basically admitted that we switched from germanium to silicon, but that this apparently doesn’t count as a difference.

    Not to mention that this is massively off-topic. The point is that batteries do not improve as fast as transistors did in the 1990s. Hence why an analogy is wrong.

    And if you are aware that Moore’s law is (more or less) dead today, then you should understand the problem that batteries are facing. They too are hitting hard physical limits. You talk of solid state batteries but they are nowhere to be found right now. Clearly, this is a hard problem and future batteries will not magically be far superior.

    But ultimately, there are other green ideas not called the BEV. Including other types of EVs. This is why I try to make it clear that I am talking about BEVs specific. Not EVs in general. Once other people become aware of this fact, it will become much clearer that the BEV is a fad. It is an expensive and very limited idea. It is arguably an idea stuck in the mid-2000s, and its advocates have simply failed to move on.


  • Yes, that is the argument. If it is a very expensive technology, it will only be for rich people. It could never be viable for poorer countries. Hence why it is a fad.

    Last I checked, almost no human beings go into space. It is not at the level of “fad” because it is basically pure science and not a real market.

    And please don’t use the word “EV” for this conversation. I’m talking about BEVs specifically. There are other types of EVs out there. Ones that will be much cheaper in the long-run. In fact, this is why I am 100% confident that BEVs are a fad. People who disagree with me simply aren’t aware that there are EVs that are not BEVs.


  • Maybe you should visit some poorer countries. BEVs are incredibly far away from being mainstream. Not to mention how much of the “success” of BEVs is due to subsidies. It is not an organic market.

    The point is that you cannot compare BEVs to computers. And certainly not the period from the 1990s. BEVs are improving at a slow rate and will have major physical limitations preventing them from going beyond a certain level. That is the point.

    And because of that, they are going to end up being a fad. By the time they are “ready” to take over, technology will have moved on and BEVs will be obsolete.